By Sid Chadwick, Chadwick Consulting, Inc. – 06/17/2022
Published in American Printer
“A time of turbulence is a dangerous time…… but its greatest danger is a temptation to deny reality…”….Peter Drucker, Consultant, Writer, Strategist
Janet Yellen recently admitted to CNN – “I was wrong last year to believe Inflation to be transitory” …. (The Wall Street Journal). She wasn’t by herself…there was a lot of support for her views to go around – as the Fed was, by her admission, using old analysis to new, never-before-experienced – Data…and conditions.
Let’s do a brief reality check:
We’re continuing to be “short” basic building supplies for housing. (That’s not expected to change - for at least three more years, as we’re short that much home building materials and labor.)
Many Commercial Print organizations are “short” – experienced personnel – and could easily hire another 5% of their current workforce. (Skilled pay in some metro areas is up 30%+.)
Mills and Paper Distributors tell us, “We will take care of our best and most loyal customers”. That’s “code” for taking care of their largest, best-paying customers – 1st. …And there appears no objection expressed from our associations – but – that has the effect of contracting our industry faster, as modest and smaller Print organizations – can’t win orders – without paper, and customers turn to alternative media.
The U.S. has significant oil and gas reserves. Yet transportation costs of an extra $100/week+ are disrupting work, employment, and family stability – as individuals must make radical changes to their transportation needs.
Our Federal Reserve has “one blunt tool” to correct Inflation: Interest Rates - which has the effect of theoretically punishing all parties equally – but particularly those lower on the economic ladder. (We now have families that suddenly can’t afford: (a) how much their rents are being raised – and must find someplace else to live, (b) to buy a home – and compete against deep-pocketed out-of-town investors. (So much for the stabilizing effects of family-home ownership - as local home and real estate organizations – push back.)
My list of out-of-balance issues – runs much longer, as I believe your list does also.
My conclusion is that – “We must relearn to cooperate and compromise – and clarify the rules of a God-fearing society - to solve our collective problems, or we are on our way - to losing our democracy.
It’s not just about what I want.
And…Inflation does not appear to be THE total problem, though it certainly is a part of the problem… that’s being created.
Our society, for a very long time, made value decisions… “For the greater good”.